CH-6 Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk analysis – Introduction to Emergency Management : Chapter Notes

6 HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ANALYSIS Focusing Efforts Learning Objectives Upon reading this chapter, students should be able to: Evaluate community vulnerabilities. Create a chemical inventory. Assess and prepare for hazards. Design a preimpact discovery recovery plan. Plan and compose emergency management interventions. Chapter Summary Emergency managers must be aware of the factors that make a community vulnerable to a disaster. The more vulnerable a community is, the higher the losses are likely to be. Emergency managers must also be able to identify key groups of people that are most likely to be affected. Finally, emergency managers must understand the characteristics of the disaster that determine the level of impact it has on a community. With these details in mind, emergency managers can determine how to best protect the community using mitigation practices and emergency response practices. Key Terms Adverse selection The tendency for hazard insurance to be purchased mostly by those who are at the greatest risk of filing a claim for losses. Agricultural vulnerability The vulnerabilities of all species of plants and animals. Emergency preparedness practices Preimpact actions that provide the human and material resources needed to support active responses at the time of hazard impact. Hazard exposure Living, working, or otherwise being in places that can be affected by hazard impacts. Hazard mitigation practices Actions that protect passively at the time of impact. HAZUS-MH A computer program that predicts losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricane winds. The program estimates casualties, damage, and economic losses. Stands for Hazards US-Multi Hazard. Human vulnerability People’s susceptibility to death, injury, or illness from extreme levels of environmental hazards. Multi Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment A FEMA manual that describes exposure to many natural and technological hazards. Normalcy bias People’s tendency to delay recognition that an improbable event is occurring and affecting them. North American Emergency Response Guidebook A manual that lists the chemicals commonly found in transportation. It details which one of its 172 emergency response guides provides the information needed to respond to a spill. It also helps you to determine how far from the spill location to shelter in-place or evacuate residents. Physical vulnerability Human, agricultural, or structural susceptibility to damage or injury from disasters. Social vulnerability Lack of psychological, social, economic, and political resources to cope with disaster impacts. Structural vulnerability The susceptibility of a structure, such as a building, to be damaged or destroyed by environmental events. Technical Guidance for Hazards Analysis A guide that lists extremely hazardous substances and describes a simple method for calculating VZs. Vulnerable Zone (VZ) The area surrounding a given source in which a chemical release is likely to produce death, injury, or illness. Lecture Notes Discuss the population segments in your community that are vulnerable. You can view census data and print it out for students at the Census website: www.census.gov If possible, show the students the LEMA’s website. Lead the students in a critique of the site. If you do not have access to the computer in the classroom, ask students to view the site on their own. If possible, demonstrate HAZ-US in the classroom. Suggestions for Learning Activities Ask students to divide into two groups. Each group should make a list of what should be included in a local hazard analysis website. After twenty minutes, ask a representative from each group to discuss their list. Divide students into two groups. Ask each group to write and develop a PowerPoint presentation on the physical and social impacts that the community is vulnerable to. Ask each group to present their presentation during the next class meeting. Lead the class in a discussion about what hazard mitigation strategies the community is currently using. Suggestions for Additional Resources GAO Accountability Report on Hurricane Katrina on the book companion website. The National Response Plan PowerPoint presentation on the book companion website. Census website: www.census.gov 7 HAZARD MITIGATION Reducing Risk Learning Objectives Upon reading this chapter, students should be able to: Manage and reduce the risks of natural hazards. Assess the risks of technological hazards and manage them by reducing them. Evaluate the five categories of mitigation strategies and how they apply to different hazards. Chapter Summary There are many different types of hazard mitigation strategies and mitigation measures. Building construction practices, land-use practices, and other mitigation legalities affect mitigation in communities. Emergency managers must know how to manage the risks of natural and technological hazards by reducing them. Emergency managers cannot just know hazard mitigation strategies; they need to know how the strategies apply to different hazards. Mitigation strategies are important because they can ultimately save lives and property. Key Terms Channelization The process of deepening and straightening stream channels. CIP A program used to plan community infrastructure and critical facilities. Stands for Capital Improvements Program. Dams Elevated barriers sited across a streambed that increase surface storage of floodwater in reservoirs upstream from them. Elevating on continuous foundation walls A method used to raise a house slightly higher than the base average projected flood height, increasing the height of the basement walls and providing secure storage Elevating on open foundations A method used in which a structure’s foundation only supports the structure at critical points, allowing high velocity water flow and breaking waves to pass under the structure with minimal resistance Eminent domain Power held by the government that can force private owners to sell their property to the government at a fair market value if the property is to be used for a public purpose. Floodwalls Water barriers that are built of strong materials such as concrete. They are more expensive than levees, but they are also stronger. Hazard mitigation Preimpact actions that provide passive protection at the time of disaster impact so there is less need for emergency response actions. Industrial hazard controls Community protection works that are used to confine hazardous materials flows. Land-use practices Alternative ways in which people use the land. Residential, commercial, and industrial development of urbanized areas is especially important in determining disaster impacts. Landslide controls Methods for reducing shear stress, increasing shear resistance, or a combination of these two. Levees Elevated barriers placed along a streambed that limit stream flow to the floodway. Overtopping The flow of water over the top of a levee. Once this happens, the water begins to erode a path that allows increasing amounts of water to flow through the opening. Piping A penetration through a dam or levee that occurs when an animal burrow, rotted tree root, or other disturbance creates a long circular tunnel through or nearly through the structure. RTK provisions A legal requirement that requires handlers of dangerous chemicals to inform neighboring communities when they store hazardous substances in amounts that are greater than EPA thresholds. Seepage erosion A form of erosion that occurs when the height of the water in the river puts pressure on water that has seeped into the riverbed, under the levee, and into the soil on the landward side of the levee. The resulting flow of water can eventually cause boils of muddy water that erode a path for the water to flow underneath and then behind the levee. Sustainable development A concept stating that the needs of the present must be met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Trusses Engineered systems that are internally braced to provide maximum strength at minimum weight. Wave action A destructive condition that causes levee failure by attacking the face of the levee and scouring away the material from which it is constructed. Lecture Notes Discuss what land use practices are used in your community. Discuss what building construction practices are used in your community. Lead the students in a discussion of eminent domain. Suggestions for Learning Activities Divide students into two groups. Ask each group to write and develop a PowerPoint presentation on the hazard mitigation strategies that the community uses. Ask each group to present their presentation during the next class meeting. Divide students into three groups. Ask one of them to hazard mitigation strategies for Florida where hurricanes are prevalent, one to discuss hazard mitigation strategies for New York City which is a terrorist target, and one to discuss mitigation strategies for tornado-prone Indiana. Give each group 20 minutes. After the end of the time, ask a student representative from each group to present the list of hazard mitigation strategies. Ask the class for ideas on how technological and natural hazards can be reduced. Suggestions for Additional Resources “Preparedness for Emergency Response: Guidelines for the Emergency Response Process,” article by Ronald W. Perry and Michael K. Lindell. Located on the book companion website. “Principles for Managing Community Relocation as a Hazard Mitigation Measure,” article by Ronald W. Perry and Michael K. Lindell. Located on the book companion website. 8 MYTHS AND REALITIES OF DISASTER RESPONSE How People and Communities Respond in an Emergency Learning Objectives Upon reading this chapter, students should be able to: Design a plan for convergence. Design a warning dissemination plan. Create a plan to work with and organize volunteers and emergent organizations. Analyze evacuation time estimates. Predict how people will respond to disasters. Chapter Summary Emergency managers must know how people truly react during a disaster so they can plan their response appropriately. There are differences between the myths and the realities of household response to emergencies. People may experience fear when disaster hits, but they also seek information and respond by taking protective action, regardless of their circumstances. In addition, those who don’t experience the disaster, often respond by volunteering to help. Because emergency managers can predict some behaviors, it’s important they develop plans to respond to those behaviors. As emergency managers have to disseminate information to those who seek it, and they have to ensure they have given appropriate warnings, solutions for protection, and even plans for organizing the people who show up to help after the disaster. Key Terms Emergent organizations A disaster response organization that performs novel tasks within novel organizations. EMONs A group of organizations whose interactions develop in response to the demands of a disaster rather than being planned beforehand. Stands for emergent multiorganizational networks. Established organizations A disaster response organization that performs normal tasks within normal organizations. Evacuation trip generation The number and location of vehicles evacuating from a risk area. Expanding organizations A disaster response organization that performs normal tasks within novel organizations. Extending organizations A disaster response organization that performs novel tasks within normal organizations. Panic An acute fear reaction marked by a loss of self-control which is followed by nonsocial and nonrational flight behavior. Lecture Notes If your class includes current responders or others who have survived disasters, be sensitive to the fact that they may have experienced trauma and may be hesitant to discuss the topic. Discuss the added psychological stresses that can arise from terrorist events as opposed to natural disasters. Ask students what they believe their response would be in the face of a hurricane. What about in a terrorist incident? What about in an apartment fire? Ask them how they think their natural responses differ (if they do) from protective actions. Suggestions for Learning Activities Invite a psychologist or other mental health professional to discuss the psychological affects of trauma. Ask students to write a 1-2 page paper comparing and contrasting expected human behavior in emergencies with actual behavior in emergencies. Show the class a film or documentary on United Airlines flight 93 (The Discovery channel produced a very good documentary and there is a feature film that is available as well). Discuss the thought process the passengers and crew went through during the time of their hijacking until their death. Suggestions for Additional Resources Mental Health Terrorism Training Manual, on the book companion website. “Understanding Citizen Response to Disasters with Implications to Terrorism,” article by Ronald Perry and Michael Lindell. Located on the book companion website. “Terrorism Challenges for Human Resource Management,” article by Lawrence Mankin and Ronald Perry. Located on the book companion website. 9 PREPAREDNESS FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE Organizing a Response Learning Objectives Upon reading this chapter, students should be able to: Manage resistance to the planning process. Write an emergency operations plan (EOP). Evaluate emergency response functions. Select organizations for emergency response and preparedness. Organize an emergency operations center (EOC). Chapter Summary Emergency responders strive to prevent casualties and damage in a disaster situation. As shown, this can be done effectively and efficiently with the proper planning, Planning can be difficult, but identifying the way the basic response functions will be implemented creates an organized framework for tackling any type of emergency. Local governments often have the resources to meet disaster demands without any outside assistance. However, multiple groups should be able to work together in a disciplined way with the proper planning. As evidenced from our recent natural disasters such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and terrorist attacks such as 9/11, emergency managers must develop a state of readiness to respond to extreme events threatening their communities. Key Terms Damage assessment An evaluation that begins by identifying the boundaries of the impact area and proceeds to estimating the total amount of damage to buildings and infrastructure in the impact area. This information is used to support a request for a presidential disaster declaration. Functional annex The part of an EOP that describes how the emergency response organization will perform a function needed to respond to disaster demands. The annexes of an all-hazards EOP should collectively list all of the emergency response functions needed to respond to all hazards. Policy entrepreneur An issue champion who has the expertise and legitimacy to promote emergency planning. Population monitoring and assessment The process of identifying the population at risk. Lecture Notes You can supplement the lecture with a discussion of Hurricane Katrina or a more recent focusing event. Be sure to discuss the concerns many professionals have with NIMS. Suggestions for Learning Activities Invite a local emergency planner to come in and discuss his/her experiences and to answer any questions the students have. Divide the students into two groups; ask the first group to discuss the advantages of NIMS. Ask the second group to discuss the disadvantages of NIMS. After twenty minutes, ask for a representative of each group to present the advantages or disadvantages of NIMS. Ask students to write a 1-2 page paper on how an EOC should be designed. After Hurricane Katrina, President Bush ordered a review of most disaster plans in the US. This is the only time in history this has ever been done. You can review the resulting documents on the book companion site, under National Review Results. Ask students to read these and come up with suggestions on how to improve the disaster plans. Suggestions for Additional Resources NIMS PowerPoint Presentation. Located on the book companion site. National Response Plan PowerPoint Presentation by Ron Perry. Located on the book companion site. Article entitled, “Preparedness for Emergency Response: Guidelines for the Emergency Planning Process,” by Michael Lindell and Ron Perry. Located on the book companion site. 10 ORGANIZATIONAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE Handling an Emergency Learning Objectives Upon reading this chapter, students should be able to: Perform emergency assessment activities in the response phase. Design a plan to protect the population and structures during hazards. Manage the information flow within the emergency operations center (EOC). Manage and organize the work of the public sector, private sector, and nongovernmental organizations to successfully respond to a community-wide disaster. Chapter Summary As shown, the EOP and procedures developed during emergency preparedness impact the actions you take during emergency response. However, as no emergency can ever be predicted with accuracy, the demands of any specific incident can never be predicted with perfect accuracy. Therefore it is imperative that students learn to improvise effectively as when the need arises. Students must focus on the four basic functions: emergency assessment, hazard operations, population protection, and incident management, and understand what tasks are associated with each of them. It is imperative that these responses are carried out effectively to minimize casualties and damage. Key Terms Alert A class of a nuclear power plant emergency defined by the NRC and FEMA that involves substantial degradation of plant safety. Releases are expected to be well below EPA exposure limits. Concept of operations A summary statement of what emergency functions are to be performed and how they are accomplished. Damage assessment A process that focuses on measuring the disaster impacts on public and private property. This function is most often thought of in terms of recovery. Damage assessment is a continuing process that begins during emergency response. Emergency classification system A method of organizing a large number of potential incidents into a small set of categories. These categories link the threat assessment to the level of activation of the responding organization. General emergency A class of a nuclear power plant emergency defined by the NRC and FEMA that involves substantial core degradation and the possibility of radioactive material escaping from the containment building. Releases might exceed EPA limits offsite. Medical aid stations Off-hospital site medical care facilities. Rapid damage assessment The first stage of damage assessment that provides you with immediate information about the magnitude of the impact. It defines the boundaries of the physical impact area and assesses the intensity of damage within that impact area. Site area emergency A class of a nuclear power plant emergency defined by the NRC and FEMA that involves major failures of plant safety functions. Releases might exceed EPA limits onsite but not offsite. Unusual event A class of a nuclear power plant emergency defined by the NRC and FEMA that involves potential degradation of plant safety. No releases are expected unless other events occur. Lecture Notes Ask students for examples of how threats are detected. Discuss emergency medical care onsite of the scene of a disaster. Discuss the types of incidents that could include at nuclear power plants. Ask students what warning they have had with warnings and protective action recommendations, if any. Ask them if the discussion was positive or negative. Ask students what kind of information they would expect in an official warning. Ask students what warning channels they would consider the most credible and why. Ask students what factors they would consider before evacuating or sheltering in place. Discuss with students how information flows in an Emergency Operations Center (EOC). Suggestions for Learning Activities If your local area has a nearby chemical company, you could ask the safety officer to come in and discuss what safeguards they have in place against a chemical accident and what they would do immediately after such an accident. Divide the students into three groups; ask the first group to think about the evacuation as a protective action recommendation and examples of when evacuation would be the best PAR choice. Ask the second group to think about sheltering in-place and when that would be the best PAR choice. Ask the third group to think about expedient respiratory protection and when that would be the best PAR choice. After twenty minutes, ask for a representative of each group to present and discuss their examples. Ask students to write a 1-2 page paper discussing what facilities and special populations emergency planners should be aware of and why. Go to the 2000 Census website (www.census.gov) and determine the percentage of special populations in your local area (poor, elderly, etc.). You can do this during class, ask students to do this on their own, or do this before the class and share the statistics with the students. Ask a media professional from the local television station or newspaper to come to class for a question and answer session on how warnings, protective action recommendations, and disasters are covered. Suggestions for Additional Resources Mental Health Terrorism Training Manual, on the book companion website. Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities, on the book companion website. CDC Response Guide, on the book companion website. “Onsite and Offsite Emergency Preparedness for Chemical Facilities and Chemical Transportation,” article by Michael Lindell and Ronald Perry. Located on the book companion website. Model Town Emergency Operations Plan, on the book companion website Instructor Manual for Introduction to Emergency Management Michael K. Lindell, Carla Prater, Ronald W. Perry 9780471772606