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6 HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ANALYSIS Focusing Efforts Answers to Self-Check Questions Answers to Self-Check questions immediately following section 6.1 Describe pre-impact conditions according to the disaster impacts model. There are three preimpact conditions—hazard exposure, physical vulnerability, and social vulnerability. Describe emergency management interventions according to the disaster impacts model. Communities can engage in three types of emergency management interventions to ameliorate disaster impacts. Physical impacts can be reduced by hazard mitigation practices and emergency preparedness practices, whereas social impacts can be reduced by recovery preparedness practices. List the variables that determine the physical impacts of disasters. Physical impacts can be reduced by hazard mitigation practices and emergency preparedness practices. List three types of conditions that determine social impacts of a disaster. Psychosocial impact, demographic impact, economic impact, and political impact. Answers to Self-Check questions immediately following section 6.2 Define human vulnerability. People’s susceptibility to death, injury, or illness from extreme levels of environmental hazards. Define agricultural vulnerability. The vulnerabilities of all species of plants and animals. Define structural vulnerability. The susceptibility of a structure, such as a building, to be damaged or destroyed by environmental events. Define social vulnerability. Lack of psychological, social, economic, and political resources to cope with disaster impacts. Answers to Self-Check questions immediately following section 6.3 Define normalcy bias. People’s tendency to delay recognition that an improbable event is occurring and affecting them. Name four characteristics of a hazard. Each hazard has six significant characteristics: The speed of onset, which affects how much warning you have. The availability of perceptual cues (wind, rain, or ground movement), which also affects how much warning you have. The intensity of the hazard, which is defined by the amount of energy or hazardous materials released. The scope of the hazard, which is the size of the geographical area and the number of people and businesses affected by disaster impacts. The duration of impact (the length of time the disaster impacts persist), which might be many years in the case of some hazardous materials. The probability of occurrence. Hazards that are likely to occur are more likely to mobilize communities to engage in hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness measures that reduce their vulnerability (Prater and Lindell, 2000). Name three sources of funding for disaster recovery. Individuals and organizations provide funds to help provide disaster assistance. The victims themselves might have financial assets (e.g., savings and insurance) as well as tangible assets (e.g., property) that are undamaged. Low-income victims tend to have small savings. They are also more likely to be victims of insurance redlining and, thus, have been forced into contracts with insurance companies that go bankrupt after the disaster. Therefore, even those who plan ahead for disaster recovery can find themselves without anything (Peacock and Girard, 1997). Victims can bring in additional money through overtime employment. Charities and local government can donate money and other gifts. The government can also provide assistance through tax deductions or deferrals. Name the steps a community must take immediately to recover from a disaster. Immediate tasks in this process include: Damage assessment. Debris clearance Reconstruction of infrastructure (electric power, fuel, water, wastewater, telecommunications, and transportation networks). Reconstruction of buildings in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Answers to Self-Check questions immediately following section 6.4 Describe the demographic impacts a disaster can have in a community. The largest demographic impacts of disasters are due to immigration and emigration. People temporarily move to the area to take construction jobs to rebuild the city. People leave the city to find temporary housing. In many cases, people who leave return. However, some areas are not rebuilt and may become “ghost towns” Describe the economic impact a disaster can have in a community. Property damage can be measured by the cost of repair or replacement. These losses are difficult to measure because not all the information is recorded. For insured property, the insurers record the amount of the deductible and the reimbursed loss. However, uninsured losses are not recorded. Some assets are not replaced and their loss causes a reduction in consumption or a reduction in investment. Other assets are replaced either through donations or purchases. Some options for recovery financing include obtaining tax deductions or deferrals, unemployment benefits, loans, grants, insurance payoffs, or additional employment. Other sources include using savings, selling property, or moving to an area with better housing or employment or less risk. In addition to direct economic losses, there are indirect losses that arise from business interruption. Name three reasons why people leave a town after a disaster strikes. Reasons why people choose to leave include: Fear another disaster will hit Loss of jobs or community services Increased neighborhood or community conflict Describe the political impacts a disaster can have in a community. The disaster recovery period is difficult because the community must make many changes in a very short time. Unless local agencies have developed a disaster recovery plan before the disaster strikes, it will be difficult for the community to solve all of the recovery problems at the same time. This creates conflict as one group’s attempts to solve its problems create problems for others. For example, victims often try to rebuild in the same spot because they like their neighborhoods. However, neighbors may become alarmed if victims place mobile homes on their own lots while waiting for permanent housing. Answers to Self-Check questions immediately following section 6.5 Define hazard mitigation practices. Actions that protect passively at the time of impact. Define emergency preparedness practices. Preimpact actions that provide the human and material resources needed to support active responses at the time of hazard impact. Explain why hazard mitigation practices and emergency preparedness are important. Hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness practices directly reduce a disaster’s physical impacts and indirectly reduce its social impacts. Outline the key steps of a preimpact recovery plan. To design a preimpact recovery plan, you should: Define a disaster recovery organization that includes major stakeholders from land-use and building construction agencies, business groups, and neighborhood associations. Identify the location of temporary housing. This is a difficult issue and usually causes conflict. Resolving this before a disaster can speed up the recovery. Determine how to perform essential tasks. These include damage assessment, condemnation, debris removal, rezoning, restoring services, temporary repair permits, and permit processing. All of these tasks must be completed before the impact area can be rebuilt (Schwab et al., 1998). Address the licensing and monitoring of contractors and retail price controls to ensure victims are not exploited. Also address the administrative powers and resources available. Local government will be overwhelmed by all of the work that needs to be done immediately after a disaster, so agencies should make arrangements to borrow staff from other jurisdictions and to use trained volunteers such as local engineers, architects, and planners. Determine how recovery tasks will be carried out at historical sites, which involve special issues such as constraints on the demolition of damaged structures and the materials used during reconstruction (Spennemann and Look, 1998). Recognize the recovery period as a unique time to enact policies for hazard mitigation and incorporate this objective into the recovery planning process. Answers to Self-Check questions immediately following section 6.6 Describe the Multi Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment. This source describes exposure to most natural hazards and some technological hazards. Describe what HAZUS-MH is used for. HAZUS-MH is a computer program that predicts losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricane winds. The program estimates casualties, damage, and economic losses. Define vulnerable zones and explain how they can be calculated. Vulnerable zones (VZs) are more likely to be affected by chemical releases. A VZ can be calculated once you know: A chemical’s toxicity. A chemical’s quantity available for release. The type of spill (liquid or gaseous). The release duration (e.g., 10 minutes). The weather conditions (wind speed and atmospheric stability). The terrain (urban or rural). List five recommendations for designing a hazard analysis website. Recognize that your website will be considered the most reliable and accurate source. You must make sure the information is accurate. Coordinate the information provided through your website with the guidelines contained in Talking about Disaster: Guide for Standard Messages, available through the American Red Cross website (www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/guide.html). Address all main hazards to which your community is vulnerable and also provide information about the likelihood of other events so that people can judge which ones deserve the greatest priority. Display this information on maps. Provide nontechnical information about hazards so users can understand how a disaster will affect their communities. Important information includes the speed of onset, scope and duration of impact, and the magnitude of different types of consequences such as casualties (deaths and injuries), property damage, and economic impacts (disruption to industrial, commercial, agricultural, and governmental activity). Provide information about actions people can take to protect themselves, their families, and their property. Describe the specific steps required to perform any unfamiliar actions. Provide links to other emergency-related information, such as situation reports about current incidents and information available from other emergency-related organizations. Keep text clear and succinct. Use large and legible fonts and simple color design schemes so the information is easy to read. Provide enough figures and pictures to explain the text and maintain interest. Avoid too many graphics because this can cause the information to download slowly. Users will become frustrated. Ensure your website is compliant with the Americans with Disabilities Act, which requires pictures and graphs to be described in words and that your site be navigable without a mouse. Make it easy for viewers to download information by attaching documents in PDF or major word processor (e.g., Word Perfect® or MS-Word®) format. Include contact information with postal and email addresses, telephone numbers, and fax numbers of persons from whom users can obtain additional information or to whom they can offer suggestions. Verify that your server can handle many users during an emergency. Answers to Summary Questions Which of the following does not determine the physical impact of a disaster? A. Hazard exposure B. Physical vulnerability C. Adverse selection D. Social vulnerability Typically, the people who are most susceptible to any environmental stressor will be the very young, the very old, and those with weakened immune systems. True or false? Human vulnerability is more complex than agricultural vulnerability. True or false? The availability of perceptual cues (such as wind, rain, or ground movement) also affects how much warning you have that a disaster is about to occur. True or false? Now that personal computers are so widespread, almost all communities have completely analyzed their environmental hazards. True or false? Which of the following delays people’s realization that an improbable event is, in fact, occurring to them? A. Personal conflict B. Normalcy bias C. Stress D. Influence of others The physical impact of a disaster is measured by all of the following except which one? A. Media coverage of event B. Injuries C. Property damage D. Deaths Statistics show that what causes the most casualties? A. Earthquakes B. Hurricanes C. Fires D. Floods Which of the following is a reason why it is difficult to assess the probabilities of extreme natural and technological events? A. The probabilities have not been calculated for many technological hazards B. The probabilities are difficult to estimate because the historical record is too short. C. The estimated probabilities are unstable because the system is changing. D. All of the above Recovery is faster and more effective when it is based on a plan that has been developed after a disaster strikes. True or false? Who are the people least likely to develop serious psychological conditions such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)? A. People with predisposing characteristics B. People who suffer severe personal impacts C. People with high social support after the traumatic event D. People who experience continuing stress Dense building materials such concrete, brick, and stone will provide the best protection if radioactive material is released from a nearby nuclear power plant. True or false? The rate at which indoor and outdoor air are exchanged is measured in air changes per second. True or false? Answers to Review Questions What three pre-impact conditions determine the impact of a disaster? The specific impacts of a disaster are determined by three pre-impact conditions—hazard exposure, physical vulnerability, and social vulnerability. What are three event-specific conditions that determine the impact of a disaster? Three event-specific conditions that determine the impact of a disaster are hazard event characteristics, improvised disaster responses, and improvised disaster recovery. What are the three types of physical vulnerability? There are three types of physical vulnerability. Human vulnerability. Humans are vulnerable to extremes of temperature, pressure, and chemical exposures. These environmental conditions can cause death, injury, and illness. Specific segments of the affected population respond to hazards differently. That is, given the same level of exposure, some people will die, others will be severely injured, others slightly injured, and the rest will survive unscathed. Typically, the most susceptible to any environmental stressor will be the very young, the very old, and those with weakened immune systems. Agricultural vulnerability. Like humans, agricultural plants and animals can also be hurt by hazards. Like humans, there are differences among individuals within each plant and animal population. However, agricultural vulnerability is more complex than human vulnerability because there are more species. Each species has its own response. Structural vulnerability. Buildings are damaged or destroyed by hazards. The design and materials used in construction determines the level of vulnerability. The construction of most buildings is governed by building codes intended to protect the building occupants from structural collapse. However, the buildings do not necessarily provide protection from extreme wind, seismic, or hydraulic loads. Nor do they provide a complete barrier to toxic air pollutants. What is social vulnerability? Social vulnerability refers to “the characteristics of a person or groups and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impacts of a natural hazard.” What are the characteristics of a hazard (name all 6)? Each hazard has six significant characteristics. They include: The speed of onset, which affects how much warning you have. The availability of perceptual cues (such as wind, rain, or ground movement), which also affects how much warning you have. The intensity of the hazard, which is defined by the amount of energy or hazardous materials released. The scope of the hazard, which is the size of the geographical area, and the number of people and businesses affected by disaster impacts. The duration of impact is the length of time the disaster impacts persist, which might be many years in the case of some hazardous materials. The probability of occurrence. Once there is no longer a threat to lives or property, communities must begin the long process of disaster recovery. What are three immediate tasks community members should take? The immediate tasks a community should take after disaster has occurred include: Damage assessment Debris clearance Reconstruction of infrastructure (electric power, fuel, water, wastewater, telecommunications, and transportation networks) Reconstruction of buildings in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors Why is it important to monitor social impacts of disasters? It’s important to monitor social impacts because social impacts can cause significant problems for the long-term functioning of specific types of households and businesses in an affected community. How do you measure the physical impact of a disaster? The physical impact of a disaster is measured in deaths, injuries, and property damage. What are five psychological effects of disasters? Disasters can cause a wide range of negative psychological responses. These responses include: Fatigue Nausea Confusion and an inability to concentrate Anxiety Depression and grief Sleep and appetite changes Ritualistic behavior Substance abuse Name three of the practices or protections of hazard mitigation. Hazard mitigation includes the following practices and protections: Hazard source control intervenes at the point of hazard generation to reduce the probability or magnitude of an event. This includes installing special couplers on railroad tank cars to prevent them from being punctured. Community protection works, such as dams and levees, confine or divert materials flows. Land use practices reduce or eliminate development on land that has high hazard exposure. Building construction practices use strong materials and hazard-resistant design, such as window shutters that protect against wind pressure and debris impacts. Building contents protection prevents damage to furniture and equipment such as furnaces, air conditioners, washers, dryers. What levels of analysis does HAZUS-MH support? The three levels of analysis HAZUS-MH supports are: Level 1 uses national average data to produce approximate results. A Level 1 is an initial screen that identifies the communities at highest risk. A Level 2 takes refined data and hazard maps to produce more accurate estimates. Input for a Level 2 is obtained from local emergency managers, urban and regional planners, and GIS professionals. A Level 3 uses community-specific information to produce the most accurate loss estimates. Input for a Level 3 is obtained from structural and geotechnical engineers, as well as other experts to examine threats such as dam breaks and levee failure. Name 5 reasons people put themselves at risk. Reasons people put themselves at risk include: People move to land that can be used for agriculture, transportation, and recreation. There is a lack of accountability for investment decisions. Developers are at risk for only a short period of time. Then they pass an investment on to others (homeowners, insurers, mortgage holders) who will experience the disaster impact. Many risk area residents are new arrivals who are unaware of their hazard exposure. Even long-term residents sometimes have little or no information. This is because information is sometimes suppressed by those with a major stake in the community’s economic development (Meltsner, 1979). Many people ignore low probability events because they think of these events as occurring far in the future. People also believe that the events will not happen to them (Weinstein, 1980). Politicians tend to ignore consequences that they expect to occur only after their term of office is over. People are forced to move into hazardous areas because the housing that is available in safer areas is too expensive or too far away from their work, families, or friends. People suffer more when they have physical and financial assets located only in the risk area. Low-income households and small businesses often have so few physical or financial assets that they cannot afford to locate some of them in safer areas. Hazard insurance suffers from adverse selection, which means that only those who are at the greatest risk are likely to purchase it (Kunreuther, 1998). Many risk area occupants overestimate the effectiveness of hazard adjustments such as dams and levees (Harding & Parker, 1974). Name five vulnerable groups and indicators of the vulnerabilities. Following is a chart of vulnerable groups and the indicators of their vulnerabilities.
VULNERABLE GROUPS VULNERABILITY INDICATORS
Female Headed Households Percent female headed households
Elderly Percent individuals over 65 Percent of elderly households
Low income/high poverty Percent of households below poverty level Percent of households below HUD standards
Renters Percent of households residing in rental housing Percent of households residing in rental housing by type of dwelling units
Ethnic/racial/language minorities Percent of individual from Black, Hispanic, and other minorities Percent of non-English speakers
Children/youth Percent of population in selected age groupings Percent of households with dependency ratios above a specified level
Social vulnerability hot spot analysis Areas with combined social vulnerabilities.
Give three examples of facilities with special needs. Following are special needs facilities:
HEALTH RELATED Hospitals Nursing homes Halfway houses (drug, alcohol, mental retardation) Mental institutions PENAL Jails Prisons Detention camps Reformatories ASSEMBLY & ATHLETIC Auditoriums Theaters Exhibition halls Gymnasiums Athletic stadiums or fields AMUSEMENT & RECREATION Beaches Camp/conference centers Amusement parks/fairgrounds/race courses Campgrounds/Recreational Vehicle parks Parks/lakes/rivers Golf courses Ski resorts Community recreation centers RELIGIOUS Churches/synagogues Evangelical group centers HIGH DENSITY RESIDENTIAL Hotels/motels Apartment/condominium complexes Mobile home parks Dormitories (college, military) Convents/monasteries TRANSPORTATION Rivers/lakes Dam locks/toll booths Ferry/railroad/bus terminals COMMERCIAL Shopping centers Central business districts Commercial/industrial parks EDUCATIONAL Day care centers Preschools/kindergartens Elementary/secondary schools Vocational/business/specialty schools Colleges/universities
Give an example of a secondary hazard for an earthquake. Secondary hazards of earthquakes include: Landslides Dam failures Hazmat releases Tsunamis What are some tools/resources for a Hazard Vulnerability Analysis? Tools include: HAZUS-MH CAMEO ARCHIE ALOHA GIS database Information from the Web sites hosted by FEMA, NWS, USGS, EPA, or NOAA Coastal Services Center (CSC) Answers to Applying This Chapter Questions You are an emergency manager for a large Midwestern city and a new high-rise office building is going to be built. What types of hazards might its occupants be exposed to? Which of these hazards is the building likely to be designed to protect against? What types of people are likely to work in the building and how might they differ in their social vulnerability? The building must be able to protect the structure, contents, and occupants. In the Midwest, you are more likely to encounter tornadoes over other hazards although some cities could also be damaged by earthquakes. The building must resist wind loads (tornadoes and hurricanes), blast forces (explosions and volcanic eruptions) and ground shaking (earthquakes) to protect the structure, contents, and occupants. There are likely to be wealthy and middle-class people working in the building as well as low-income people working in the building. The low-income workers are more socially vulnerable than high-income or middle-income workers. Also, elderly and female headed households are more vulnerable as well. You are the emergency manager for New Orleans and you now have people who have lost their homes and their jobs. People who have lost almost everything are coming to you and asking where they can obtain financial help. What information do you give them? I would discuss options with them such as going to local and national charities for help such as the American Red Cross. I would also try to help them determine if they have hazard/flood/homeowner’s insurance and if they can collect on those policies. I would also discuss FEMA and other federal programs designed to help them. You are the emergency manager for a small Midwestern town, and you have been asked to describe the impact a disaster could have on the community. You are putting together a presentation on the types of physical and social impacts of disasters. You also have been tasked to describe some mitigation practices the community can take to minimize disaster impacts. What do you include in the presentation? I would discuss the human, agricultural, and structural vulnerabilities of the community. I would also discuss what mitigation efforts can be taken such as instituting sufficient building codes, having a good warning system in place, and having evacuation plans ready (for biohazards). There are chemical facilities located just outside your community. You need to create a chemical inventory and develop a plan in case there is a release from one of the facilities. How do you convince community leaders to provide the funds you need to develop a chemical inventory and calculating the vulnerable zones? I would present a detailed analysis of the economic losses and casualties the community would suffer from an accidental or premeditated chemical incident. I would also demonstrate that the funds used to calculate the vulnerable zones and plan accordingly would save lives and money in the long run. You are working with a Web site developer to create a hazard analysis Web site for a suburb of Chicago. The designer needs your input on what content to place on the Web site. Create a presentation that shows the designer what needs to be included on the Web site. I would make the following suggestions to the designer: Recognize that your Web site will be considered the most reliable and accurate source. You must make sure the information is accurate. Coordinate the information provided through your Web site with the guidelines contained in the Red Cross’s Talking about Disaster: Guide for Standard Messages, available at http://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/guide.html. Address all main hazards to which your community is vulnerable, and also provide information about the likelihood of other events so that people can judge which ones deserve the greatest priority. Display this information on maps. For Chicago, this would include tornadoes, terrorist attacks, and chemical and biological incidents. Provide non-technical information about hazards so users can understand how a disaster will affect their communities. Important information includes the speed of onset, scope and duration of impact, and the magnitude of different types of consequences such as casualties (deaths and injuries), property damage, and economic impacts (disruption to industrial, commercial, agricultural, and governmental activity). Provide information about actions people can take to protect themselves, their families, and their property. Describe the specific steps required to perform any unfamiliar actions. Provide links to other emergency-related information such as situation reports about current incidents and information available from other emergency-related organizations. Keep text clear and succinct. Use large and legible fonts and simple color design schemes so the information is easy to read. Provide enough figures and pictures to explain the text and maintain interest. Avoid too many graphics because this can cause the information to download slowly. Users will become frustrated. Ensure your Web site is compliant with the Americans with Disabilities Act, which requires pictures and graphs to be described in words and that your site be navigable without a mouse. Make it easy for viewers to download information by attaching documents in PDF or major word processor (e.g., Word Perfect® or MS-Word®) format. Include contact information with postal and e-mail addresses, telephone numbers, and fax numbers of persons from whom users can obtain additional information or to whom they can offer suggestions. You are an emergency manager for an East coast city. You have been asked to produce a report on the advantages and disadvantages of different hazard/vulnerability analysis tools. What do you include in the report? Create a presentation showing what you would include. I would discuss HAZUS-MH and also talk about why it is not often used. A major problem in applying the methods of HVA is risk and uncertainty. FEMA’s (1997) Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis, together with information from state and federal agency web sites, can identify the hazards to which a community is exposed. This is a good start, but it is not enough. You should consider the probability rather than just the possibility of a disaster. An event that has a 50% chance of occurrence needs more attention than one that has only a 1% chance of occurrence. However, there are often problems with probability estimates. The probability that an event of a given magnitude will occur within a specified time period is uncertain. The probabilities have not been calculated for many technological hazards such as the probability of a toxic chemical spills during transport through a given jurisdiction. The probabilities are difficult to estimate because the historical record is too short. This is a very difficult problem when trying to determine the probability of very infrequent events, such as being struck by a Category 5 hurricane. The estimated probabilities are unstable because the system is changing. For example, the true probability of a major flood is often higher than its nominal value because upstream development is increasing the probability of downstream flooding. However, the extent to which the probability has increased is unknown. The event probability may be confidential. For example, chemical facilities won’t share their risk analyses with anyone but public safety and emergency management personnel for security reasons. For all these reasons, you cannot currently obtain precise information about hazard vulnerability. Moreover, such information is also unlikely to be available in the near future. This might seem to be a negative view of the usefulness of HVAs but it is not. Rather, it simply recognizes the current limitations of HVA technology and the resources you can devote to this activity. However, you can still do a good job without extremely precise data. This is because you only need enough information to decide how much money to spend on different activities. That is, you need enough HVA data to decide how to allocate resources among hazard mitigation, emergency response preparedness, and disaster recovery preparedness. After you assess the relative threat from different types of hazards, remember that these different hazards might have the same disaster demands. For example, hurricanes and inland floods might have different probabilities of occurrence but they require similar emergency responses such as evacuation. Consequently, some investments will help you prepare for multiple hazards. In general, all hazards require effective incident management and most require population protection. Solution Manual for Introduction to Emergency Management Michael K. Lindell, Carla Prater, Ronald W. Perry 9780471772606
