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CHAPTER 5 Determining HR Demand DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Imagine that you have a friend who owns and runs a family restaurant that specializes in plant-based whole foods. At capacity, the restaurant requires four wait staff to wait on all the tables. While the restaurant has been getting busier and busier, your friend has found it challenging to have the right number of wait staff working. Sometimes when only one person is working, he or she is overwhelmed, and other times the three or four people working stare into a mostly empty restaurant. When staff aren’t working, the restaurant is losing money, and the wait staff aren’t earning tips. Without a full income from waiting tables, the better wait staff move to busier jobs, so the quality of workers is suffering from this poor scheduling. Using what you know about forecasting demand, what advice would you offer to solve this scheduling issue? Answer: Use Nominal Group Technique • The planning staff may use econometric and strategic models to predict the future level of sales of, or demand for, the organization’s goods and services, important insights into future, economic indicators affecting labour demand such as interest rates, change in gross national product, and the level of consumer disposable income. • Both Delphi technique and nominal group technique depend on experts with known figures, not individuals familiar with the company. • Industry spokespersons and others possess detailed knowledge of specific industries or types of organizational activity and are able to give rich, detailed, and largely impartial judgments on future labour demand because of their external perspective relative to the organization. Some methods are research restaurant associations, industry periodicals, Business Improvement Associations and Economic Development offices. 2. The Delphi technique and the nominal group technique (NGT) are often used to facilitate creative and innovative solutions to HR demand issues. What are the similarities and differences between the two methods? List the conditions associated with successful employment of each of these two demand forecasting techniques. Answer: Similarities are that both use experts and questionnaires, Also, both use processes for estimating using known public features, not a company’s own numbers. Both Delphi and nominal use questionnaires. Both the Delphi technique and the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) are commonly employed in HR demand forecasting, particularly for generating creative and innovative solutions. Here's a breakdown of their similarities, differences, and conditions for successful implementation: Similarities: 1. Group Involvement: Both techniques involve the participation of a group of experts or stakeholders. 2. Structured Process: Both methods follow a structured approach to gather insights and opinions from participants. 3. Anonymity: Initially, both techniques often involve anonymity to encourage unbiased contributions from participants. 4. Iterative Process: They both utilize iterative processes to refine ideas and reach a consensus. Differences: 1. Communication Method: In the Delphi technique, communication between participants is typically mediated through a facilitator who anonymizes responses and aggregates feedback across rounds. In contrast, NGT allows direct interaction among participants. 2. Anonymity vs. Interaction: While the Delphi technique initially maintains anonymity to reduce biases, NGT encourages face-to-face interaction among participants. 3. Quantitative vs. Qualitative: The Delphi technique often involves the use of quantitative methods to systematically aggregate and analyze responses, while NGT focuses more on qualitative discussions and idea generation. 4. Process Structure: Delphi relies on multiple rounds of feedback and controlled feedback mechanisms to converge towards consensus, whereas NGT involves structured face-to-face meetings where participants share ideas and collectively prioritize them. Conditions for Successful Employment: Delphi Technique: 1. Diverse Expertise: Ensure participants represent diverse perspectives and expertise relevant to the forecasting domain. 2. Anonymity: Maintain anonymity in the initial rounds to prevent dominance by any single participant and encourage unbiased contributions. 3. Iterative Feedback: Implement multiple rounds of feedback to refine forecasts and converge towards consensus. 4. Skilled Facilitation: Effective facilitation is crucial to guide the process, manage group dynamics, and ensure the integrity of the forecast. Nominal Group Technique (NGT): 1. Clear Objectives: Clearly define the objectives and scope of the discussion to focus participants' efforts on relevant issues. 2. Structured Process: Follow a structured process with defined steps, such as idea generation, clarification, and prioritization, to ensure productive discussions. 3. Equal Participation: Encourage equal participation by all group members to leverage diverse perspectives and expertise. 4. Facilitator Skill: Skilled facilitation is essential to manage the discussion, encourage participation, and ensure the group adheres to the process. By understanding the nuances of each technique and implementing them under appropriate conditions, HR professionals can effectively leverage the Delphi technique and NGT to forecast demand and generate innovative solutions to HR challenges. 3. Ratio or trend analysis can be a very effective method for determining HR demand. Identify a wide variety of relevant indices that can be used for this demand-forecasting technique in different organizational contexts, including public not-for-profit organizations, as well as in diverse industrial settings in the private sector. Answer: • Production time • Downtime • Employee satisfaction • Client/customer satisfaction and feedback • Number of widgets produced • Number of widgets damaged • Customers served • Gross revenue • Profit • Absenteeism • Injuries • Turnover • Retention • Time to hire • Training provided • Results compared to strategic plan • Stock market price EXERCISE: SCENARIO PLANNING Based on the provided information and the contrasting factors of "Maximum Choice" and "Too Much Choice" regarding undergraduate university courses in Canada, the question could be: "What are the implications of offering maximum choice versus offering too much choice in undergraduate online course offerings in Canada, particularly concerning factors such as accessibility, interaction, instructional support, and student preferences?" Answer: Undergraduate University Courses in Canada—Trends toward Online Course offerings Factor Clusters Funding: • May be more flexible for funding from certain governments that acknowledge benefits to individuals, families, and the community. • May be encouraged by government as low overhead funding needed by schools. • If research shows in future that online learning is less effective for learning, both employer and government funding may be cut. Economic factors: • With busy, mobile, lives, students want to be able to study anytime, anywhere. • Eventually there may be lower costs for online courses than in-person courses. • If research shows in future that online learning is less effective for learning, both employers and government funding may be cut. Environmental: • Students want maximum flexibility that works in any school, and courses that can be applied to diplomas or degrees easily. • Schools will need to offer this. • Not all majors may be available online • As educational funding is provincial, funding may influence choice of schools and courses. Social: • Many benefits to students, i.e., lack of commute and highly flexible study hours aid in interaction with family. • Some ESL (English as a Second Language Students) like the ability to interact asynchronously so they have time to process information. • Some students appreciate the anonymity of online as just knowing names is different than in-person interaction. • Some students may be distracted by activity and classmates in-person, thereby focusing more online. • Some students may consider in-person interaction with teacher, classmates and peers in their industry an asset for networking, learning, and English practice. • Some students learn well in study groups or working with a team in-person. Technological: • Cheaper, faster, better technology to speed up tasks, processing, more communication formats, e.g., social media, course sites • Constantly improving software, hardware, and tools. • As courses become more technically sophisticated in content, interaction, and other tools, those with less computer experience or less English may feel intimidated. • Some students may worry about the privacy of data they post online or the safety of accessing large computer networks. Demographic: • With many responsibilities including children, work, and caring for aging parents while studying, students want flexible study anytime, anywhere, and using any device. • Older individuals with less technical experience may be more comfortable with traditional methods or study. Legal/regulatory: • The flexibility or lack of flexibility for online or in-person courses being considered as equal towards each other, especially for professional accreditation, is a large influence. • The flexibility or lack of flexibility for online or in-person courses being considered as equal towards each other, especially for professional accreditation, is a large influence. NAME: MAXIMUM CHOICE NAME: TOO MUCH CHOICE Related to: Need: Time Courses Interaction with class, networking, and with instructor Combine courses for whole diploma, degree, certificate including online and in-person courses. As more complex course tools develop, some students may feel intimidated by online courses Use any mobile device. Personal direction and explanations. Able to work around home life, job, other demands. Hands-on and group learning. Requirements Requirements Instructions on how to combine courses for a complete program. Comprehensive written, oral, and personal instructions. Excellent technical support for instructors and students. Extensive interaction. Limited teamwork. CASE STUDY: Ontario Power Generation Questions: 1. Assuming that OPG wishes to improve its HR demand forecasts for technicians over a three-year period, do you think that OPG should use a quantitative or qualitative type of model to assess its demand for technicians? Answer: Choosing between a quantitative or qualitative type of model to assess HR demand for technicians at OPG depends on various factors such as the nature of the organization, available data, forecasting horizon, and the complexity of the demand drivers. Here are considerations for each approach: Quantitative Model: 1. Data Availability: If OPG has historical data on technician demand, including factors like past recruitment numbers, turnover rates, project schedules, and workload fluctuations, a quantitative model could effectively analyze this data. 2. Forecasting Accuracy: Quantitative models utilize statistical techniques to analyze historical trends and patterns, potentially providing more precise forecasts. These models can project future demand based on past performance, making them suitable for medium to long-term forecasting. 3. Complexity: If demand drivers for technicians at OPG are primarily quantitative and can be quantified (e.g., project schedules, workload projections, historical recruitment data), a quantitative model might capture these factors more effectively. 4. Automation: Quantitative models can often be automated, allowing for efficient updating and recalibration as new data becomes available. This can streamline the forecasting process, especially for a large organization like OPG. Qualitative Model: 1. Limited Historical Data: If historical data on technician demand is sparse or unreliable, a qualitative approach may be more appropriate. In such cases, expert judgment and subjective assessments from stakeholders can provide valuable insights. 2. Complex Demand Drivers: If demand for technicians is influenced by qualitative factors that are difficult to quantify (e.g., changes in technology, regulatory requirements, organizational restructuring), a qualitative model may be better suited to capture these nuances. 3. Stakeholder Engagement: Qualitative models often involve consultation with key stakeholders, such as HR managers, department heads, and project managers, to gather insights into future demand drivers. This can enhance the accuracy of forecasts by incorporating diverse perspectives. 4. Scenario Analysis: Qualitative models allow for scenario analysis, where different possible future scenarios are explored based on qualitative inputs. This flexibility can be valuable in situations of uncertainty or rapid change. In conclusion, whether OPG should use a quantitative or qualitative model depends on the specific context of their technician demand forecasting needs. A hybrid approach that combines both quantitative and qualitative methods may also be beneficial, leveraging the strengths of each approach to improve the accuracy and reliability of the forecasts. 2. What specific form of quantitative or qualitative model do you think OPG should use? Answer: For OPG's HR demand forecasting for technicians over a three-year period, a hybrid approach combining both quantitative and qualitative models would likely yield the most comprehensive and accurate results. Here's a specific recommendation: Hybrid Approach: 1. Quantitative Model: Time Series Analysis • Utilize historical data on technician demand, recruitment numbers, turnover rates, project schedules, and workload fluctuations to conduct time series analysis. • Techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, or ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models can be employed to identify trends, seasonality, and forecast future demand based on past patterns. • This quantitative model provides a structured framework for analyzing historical data and projecting future demand, particularly for short to medium-term forecasting. 2. Qualitative Model: Expert Judgment and Delphi Technique • Engage key stakeholders within OPG, including HR managers, department heads, and project managers, to gather qualitative insights into future demand drivers. • Conduct expert judgment sessions where participants provide their assessments and forecasts based on their expertise and knowledge of industry trends, technological advancements, regulatory changes, and organizational initiatives. • Additionally, implement the Delphi Technique, a structured communication method, to systematically gather and refine expert opinions through multiple rounds of feedback, ensuring consensus and reducing biases. • This qualitative model incorporates subjective assessments and insights into factors that may not be fully captured by historical data, providing a more holistic view of future demand drivers. 3. Integration and Validation: • Combine the results from the quantitative and qualitative models to develop a unified forecast for technician demand. • Validate the forecasted demand against external benchmarks, industry reports, and economic indicators to ensure robustness and accuracy. • Iteratively refine the forecast by incorporating new data and adjusting model parameters as needed to adapt to changing circumstances. By adopting this hybrid approach, OPG can leverage the strengths of both quantitative and qualitative models to enhance the accuracy, reliability, and comprehensiveness of their HR demand forecasts for technicians over the three-year period. This approach allows OPG to account for both historical trends and future uncertainties, providing valuable insights for workforce planning and decision-making. ADDITIONAL SUGGESTED EXERCISE Visit www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150128/dq150128a-eng.htm to research Canadian labour trends. Solution Manual for Strategic Human Resources Planning Monica Belcourt 9780176798086, 9780176570309
